Elections, Michael Sandoval

GOP increases lead day before election, ahead of 2010

Colorado Republicans retained their lead in weekend returns, narrowly expanding their cushion to more than 112,000 votes in partisan ballot returns, according to figures released earlier to day by the Colorado Secretary of State.

Republican voters have submitted 558,966 ballots, or 40.5 percent of the total 1,379,962 ballots returned. Democrats have turned in 446,448 ballots, or 32.4 percent. Unaffiliated voters trail both parties with 359,496 ballots completed, approximately 26 percent of the vote.

In 2010, Republicans led Democrats 40.7 to 35.1 percent in ballot returns the day before election day, giving them a 61,530 partisan ballot lead going into the final day of the campaign.

Among the 12 battleground counties accounting for more than 85 percent of the total active registered voters in Colorado, Republicans have increased their turnout over 2010 in all of them in terms of percentage increases, and hold a strict numerical lead in eight of them. Most importantly for GOP hopes at capturing a U.S. Senate seat and the governor’s mansion, Republicans hold significant leads in Arapahoe, Jefferson, and Larimer counties, key swing counties that will likely determine which party wins Tuesday night.

Across stronghold counties where each party hopes to rally their respective bases and run up the ballot totals, Democrats lead by approximately 48,000 votes in Denver and 24,000 votes in Boulder. In El Paso county, Republicans lead their Democratic counterparts by more than 53,000 votes, while holding a 31,000 vote lead in Douglas county. Typically Democratic-leaning counties–Adams and Pueblo–have seen a surge in GOP turnout going into the final days. Pueblo hosted one of the 2013 recall votes that led to a GOP victory and Republicans are likely benefitting from the legacy of that election.

Sliced another way, Democrats have around 90,000 more active voters to reach in Denver, and around 37,000 votes in Boulder. Republicans in Douglas county have 37,000 outstanding partisan ballots among active voters, and around 58,000 active registered votes remaining in El Paso county.

Active registered Democrats number 894,332, and active registered Republicans total 949,029. Nearly 50 percent of active Democrats have turned in their ballots so far across the state, while 58.9 percent of Republicans have done the same. The total numbers of active registered voters for each party was current as of October 1.

Final pre-election turnout numbers will be available tomorrow.

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