Business/Economy

Historian Will Durant observed that peace is an unstable equilibrium which can be preserved only by acknowledged supremacy or equal power. War is a constant of human history and human nature and always will be. That’s not cynicism or defeatism, it’s practicality. If you believe otherwise you needn’t read any further, we have an irreconcilable premise.

Operation Absolute Resolve, a masterful, tactically precise strike swiftly and flawlessly executed by Delta Force commandoes coordinating intelligence, land, sea, and air elements to arrest and extract Venezuela dictator Nicolas Maduro was a prime example of the superior capabilities of our U.S. military forces.

That’s the good news. However, this singular exercise is overshadowed by a far more serious, even existential, problem. The US is not prepared for the potential of WW III, a growing threat in recent years given China’s massive military buildup and international expansion, with Taiwan the next designated target. (In this context, alarmism and paranoia about climate change in the next century is a mere distraction.)

Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus was a 4th century Roman military strategist renowned for the Latin maxim: “Let he who desires peace prepare for war.” Ronald Reagan called this “peace through strength” and his buildup of our military deterrence ultimately led to the West’s victory in the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, avoiding the alternative of a “Hot War.”

With WWII already in progress overseas, the US – woefully short on military personnel and weaponry – got caught with its pants down on Dec 7, 1941 when the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor. Fortunately, as an island nation far from Europe and Asia, we had time to recover and convert our industrial infrastructure to wartime production, which ultimately played the major role in the Allies’ victory as both sides devastated each other’s industries overseas. President Franklin Roosevelt dubbed this the “arsenal of democracy.”

Today, ICBMs, hypersonic missiles, drones, and satellite warfare make our “island” vulnerable at a moment’s notice. An active-duty military of 12 million in WWII and 3.5 million during Vietnam is now down to 1.3 million. Reagan’s buildup to a 600-ship Navy (597 in fact) is down to 296 warships today, while China has 370. (True, advanced offensive and defensive technology make these ships far more capable but they still can’t be in two places at the same time.) The US Navy has just 4 shipyards, which only perform maintenance. Just 5 of our private shipyards are capable of building warships. We need many more. Weapons and material recently expended to support our allies have yet to be replenished. You can’t flick a switch to convert industry to wartime production. This long overdue renovation will take years to complete.

Our government’s budget priorities are out of whack. In 1960, when John F. Kennedy was elected – after the Korean War and before Vietnam – defense spending was 52% of all federal spending and 9% of the nation’s GDP. In the 1980s, Reagan’s defense buildup averaged 26% of the budget and 6% of GDP. Today, defense spending is just 12% of the budget and 3% of GDP.

The federal budget categorizes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and a cornucopia of welfare programs as “payments to individuals.” In 1960, that accounted for one-quarter of federal spending. Last year, it was three-quarters of the budget, most of which is treated as “mandatory spending,” meaning it’s on auto pilot and requires no new congressional appropriations each year. The remaining one-quarter is for “discretionary spending,” about half of which for national defense at $900 billion. Oh, I almost forgot. Interest on the national debt of $1 trillion soaks up another 12% of the budget and is a hundred million more than we spend on national defense. Interest payments are the carrying charge on borrowed money the feds have already spent and are nonsensically not included in “mandatory spending.” Defaulting on domestic and worldwide holders of US Treasury Bonds isn’t an option.

The US gross national debt is now $39 trillion, $8 trillion greater than our GDP, the total output of our economy. During WWII, when defense spending took 85% of the federal budget our national debt peaked at 119% of GDP. Today, with the nation at relative peace, our debt burden is even higher at 128% of GDP. (In 1981 it was 32%.)

This is worsening and unsustainable. Creeping socialism is driving us to fiscal insolvency. Taxes are already too high. National defense is our government’s paramount duty, the prerequisite for security, freedom, and prosperity.

The military needs a raise and the fraud-plagued welfare state needs a haircut.

Longtime KOA radio talk host and columnist for the Denver Post and Rocky Mountain News Mike Rosen now writes for Complete Colorado.